As we approach the first significant data signpost in F1 2015 (ie. Spain) it is worth taking stock of the data so far.
The ‘market share’ view of Performance describes succinctly what we all probably know namely:
- Mercedes started off perfect against the Max Share Line, have lost a bit in Malaysia and China but stabilised.
- Ferrari have slowly imposed themselves in 2nd place and sustained.
- Williams have a steady share.
- Red Bull and Sauber are having their share robbed by Lotus and Force India.
So the scores on the doors should come as no surprise as:
Performance
- Mercedes ↔
- Ferrari ↔
- Williams ↔
However, now we are at Spain and the season’s rune stones are usually determined I think the following is worth looking out for in the Performance area:
- Williams are not that far behind Ferrari strategically. Given their relatively small budget media focus will remain on them doing well. The real excitement this year will be for 2nd place.
- If Red Bull continue to go through engines at the current rate and there are no rule revisions for the ‘5th Engine’ then we will probably see them squeezed further despite Riccardio’s stellar performances.
- There are hints that Lotus could take more of the share despite being a one man team.
- The real unknown is what Sauber are capable of……..
The Performance Coefficient Plot Chart supports this analysis.
And here is the same chart when zoomed down to the first 4 races.
Value
I have updated my 2015 Guide to Value. However the scores are follows:
- Mercedes ↔
- Williams ↔
- Ferrari ↔
Again as Spain approaches things are settling:
- Mercedes are consolidating their top spot having been second after a perfect 1,2 in race 1. As you can see Sauber briefly held that position.
- There is quite a close call for Ferrari and Williams for second spot. If only Massa had managed a few more places higher or Vettel?
- 4th place which is not that far removed from 3rd spot is all about Force India and Lotus.
Conclusion
So no real surprises in the Performance area. Mercedes should take the championship if the drivers can behave themselves and the engineering delivers. Close battle for 2nd place on all fronts. Real interest in to be had in 4th place; this could all be about Force India and Lotus and strangely not Red Bull.