On the surface it would look like Spain was the usual baseline activity for the teams. Some major upgrades usually appear and the race normally defines how much relative to each other these upgrades are going to enhance their relative performance. The actual race results suggest that the teams are settling down to their season stasis and that the only real battle we can see is that for 2nd place in the Constructors battle between Ferrari and Williams. A closer look at the figures suggests something subtler is going on and which could explain some of the enigmatic things going on in the teams.
For instance:
- Hamilton still has not signed a contract with Mercedes as far as we know?
- Ferrari seem to want to keep Raikkonen’s option for next year dangling.
- There is a lot of talk around Bottas?
However a quick look at the Performance share chart above not that much has changed overall, which is what Spain traditionally all about, the settling of sands from the beginning of the season’s teething pains. I would seriously doubt that this position would change significantly between now and the end of the season.
Performance
Above is the Performance chart for the teams based on the cumulative season points. It further reinforces the strategic position although masks the improving performance of Williams. The melee at the bottom sadly hides Lotus slowly lifting themselves out of the sump along with Red Bull. Despite a great start to the season from Sauber they are now descending into the bottom figures. I guess their early season success could be down to the engineering failures at Red Bull? I think the following will have happen if the top 3 position is to change significantly in the remains of the season – Bottas would have to continue to take on Raikkonen. This seems to be where the trading space is. We could then see Williams gradually take chunks out of Ferrari race by race the effective being to converge their joint position overall. All to Mercedes advantage as they sail off into the sunset and probably Ferrari wishing they had either Bottas or Hamilton on their team!
Value
This is as we know the real measure of what is going on. As you can see from the latest results Ferrari are not doing as well as the results would suggest and further they have slipped out of the top 3 from 2nd place and by quite some margin. The harsh reality for a team like Ferrari is that their points cost a lot. Raikkonen is just not getting high enough placings and Bottas really is taking it to him. Maybe that is why there is so much chat around Bottas? As you can see only Williams were able to increase their net Value in Spain despite a 1,2 finish from Mercedes.
Lotus have bounced up to 3rd, and that was with just with a single result again. They have a quite a dilemma, since the engine change they have one driver who can bring the car home with point consistently and thus produce good Value as their budget is modest versus another driver who is a major source of income for the team but consistently fails to finish or crashes. They must be thinking of the possibilities?
Conclusion
All in all when combined with rumours I think these are the strategic indicators and warnings to watch in the weeks to come:
- Will Red Bull convince Audi to come to their rescue, or will it be too late anyway?
- Will Hamilton sign his contract with Mercedes or make himself available to others?
- Will Raikkonen perform strong enough to keep his place?
- Will Renault take over Lotus and help them with their dillema?