As we approach the Japanese event I thought it worth a few moments to record a few thoughts on what is probably the tipping point for most of the teams this season and possibly for the sport as a whole.
I will focus on the following areas:
Musical chairs
The rumours and chat continue and further underpins my modelling work on how strategic decision making is performed in F1. It is clear from the press interrogation of Alonso that he is playing poker with he market. We should not be surprised if that Ferrari’s form continues it is highly likely that he will go to McLaren; and if Eddie Jordan is to be believed he could be joined by Vettel! I will write more post race, but my other hypothesis that Hamilton could go to Ferrari I think may be cooler now, well at least for a year.
Winners and Losers
It is clear looking at the data analysis Mercedes and Force India are the clear beneficiaries this season with Red Bull and Williams bringing up the rear. Ferrari have spent a fortune as always and have nothing to show for it and the small teams are hurting bad. The bailiffs may be recovering from their visit to Caterham this week but the big surprise is that Lotus is still viable. I guess the financial model has a good stomach for the long game?
2 cars good, 3 cars bad?
Which neatly leads to the remaining strategic story setting the tone for next year. If the small teams cannot survive (and the data suggests they can’t) then the remains teams will go to 3 cars whether they like it or not. This will of course change the sport completely and I am not sure it is in the spirit of the sport. I think efficient outfits like Force India will really hurt which will be a shame.